In what seems an unprovoked attack a group of morrocian troopers invaded yesterday a very small desert spanish island near Ceuta.
The excuse is that they need it to control the migration fluxes that passes the Estrecho and to control terrorism in Gibraltar. This is obviously false, since the island is barely 200 metres from the moroccian coast (and they could place a base in their territory). But they know that by claiming those reasons they could soft the american and british reactions.
That island is not protected by the NATO agreements, so NATO has stated that the conflict is a bilateral issue.
None of the press of the dictatorial state of Morocco has reflected the conflict. In the case Spain reacts military, the moroccian population will think that Spain attacked first.
They have done it now, before the summer, because they know that a military response will harm the tourism in Spain.
So the situation is that if the spanish government does nothing, Morocco has conquered a spanish territory, and they could do the same in Ceuta, Melilla or the Canarian Islands next. If the government responds militaryly, they know the conflict could scalate, and that the NATO and EU will not support the action. Since Morocco says every time they can that they are fighting Al Qaeda terrorism in Gibraltar and their territory, the US has an excelent relationship (as good as the US has modified its point of view regarding the referendum of the Occidental Sahara). Morocco has kicked spanish fishermen from the traditional fish places, and has given permissions to both France and the USA to extract oil and phosphates in their territory.
Also, they have by now introduced legally or ilegally half a million moroccians in spanish territory.
With this perspective the spanish government has only answered Morocco what they want our relationship to be, and to maintain the last status quo of two friendly countries.
We will see how this ends
Fernando