Something for the pro EU's to think about:

Basque and Irish Insurgents Cast Doubt on
EU's Future 16 July 2001 By George Friedman

Summary
The European experiment of the new century cannot be declared a success until it has weathered a massive economic downturn. Individual European states today are
prepared to subsume their national aspirations for economic gain. But with recent economic decline in Europe, the question of what or who can hold the European
Union together remains unaddressed.
Analysis Over the weekend, Basque nationalists of the Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA)separatist movement killed two officials in a well-planned strike at separate
targets 12 miles apart. At the same time, Britain's MI-5 broke up an operation of
the Real Irish Republican Army (RIRA) to secure weapons and sponsorship fromIraq.

These two incidents, part of persistent Basque and Irish insurgencies, are in many ways more significant to the long-term prospects of European unification
than the disintegration of southeastern Europe into feuding ethnic states. They
challenge a widely held view that long-term economic growth will end nationalist
friction and marginalize the internal dissidents who could create future conflict.
The creation of a trans-European entity after the massive European bloodletting in the first half of the 20th century has been an extraordinary event. The founders of the European Community, later the European Union, explained it as a rational response to that bloodletting, based on two assumptions: First,leaders on the Continent agreed that another round of fighting could annihilate
European civilization. Second, they assumed Europe is an inherently prosperous region. If the Europeans succeeded in building institutions to exploit their resources, they
could create unprecedented and lasting affluence. As the European Community demonstrated the success of the trans-national experiment, more and more states would wish to join in the prosperity and the relationship would deepen. More important, as the price for membership required that minor nationality issues, both internal and external, be set aside, it was
assumed that nationality issues plaguing individual states would subside.Whether this theory has been confirmed or not is more than a theoretical question. It goes to the heart of the European question and in turn to the future of the world. Recent signs of economic downturn in the economies of Western Europe indicate the long-term viability of the EU will be tested sooner rather tha later.

The ongoing nationalist insurgencies such as the Irish RIRA and Basque ETA stem from internal ethnic and political struggles more than from the economic prosperity that has defined most of the past decade. But the indirect connection is still relevant: If it was the prosperity facilitated by EU membership that helped marginalize these groups, a significant economic downturn could lead to their resurgence.Indeed, recent events in Italy, a member nation, and in Ireland and Austria, EU
observer nations, suggest that both economic and political pressures are building
against the EU goals of monetary and political integration.In Italy, the election of the conservative "Home of Freedom" coalition added a partner to the group of EU nations (particularly the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland) who oppose the German-Franco move toward a formal, federalized Europe. It is also increasing the likelihood of continued challenges to the euro as a common currency. Likewise, Ireland and Austria have come under EU criticism for budgetary and political decisions that challenge the concept of European federalism.
Individual European states today are prepared to subsume their national aspirations for economic benefit. But if those benefits cease to exist, what will hold the union together?
When the monetary policy being pursued by the European Central Bank imposes austerity, as likely will happen sometime, that austerity will not be equally distributed. A monetary policy that benefits one European nation need not benefit others, and it is unlikely that it would.That will be the point at which European nationalism - currently limited to policy disagreements between national governments and the EU headquarters in
Brussels - will become significant again.
History shows that secession is the natural tendency during times of economic stringency. It will be at that moment that the ETAs and RIRAs of Europe will blossom again, combining primordial national sentiment with economic policy.The European Union is unprepared to deal with a system in crisis. Indeed, there is no institution on the Continent capable of preventing secession by current members, nor has this potential problem been addressed or even debated.When the North American Union faced the same issue in the late 1850s, the
question of secession was not settled until the Army of the Potomac seized the
strategic initiative at the Battle of Gettysburg. Within the European Union, who
will raise and command a force to protect the European Union? An Army of the -
Rhine?

George Friedman is the founder and chairman of STRATFOR.

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