Al the written above, is actually affirming that the main enemies for the EU stability are the individual countries that are part of it. All the main reforms that have been proposed in the EU in the last years have been opposed effectively, anl left without meaning because of the influence and votes of the representatives of countries that whose interests were damaged by them.

Being that reasonable, the truth is that we can no longer be taking decissions this way, it would be like approving the budget of the USA and its distribution into a commision formed by the States. They would never come to an agreement. Polititians are prone to priorize their electors to the national/comunal interest.

Europe is an area whose differences in many aspects come from times when a country (subject to a "king" or "independent Warlord") was as long as his horse (and sword) could reach in a day.
There are Alsace and Lorraine, which are franco-german areas, there is the former West and East Germany both very different from each other, Ireland, and the stolen part, Northern Ireland, the northern areas of Italy (swiss influence), the isle of Corcega (don't know the name in English), Marseilles, Bretagne, in France, the flamish an valois areas in Belgium, ..., shall I go on?

We are spliteed in so many small pieces forced to fit in countries, that a country as the EU would be could be what we really need. Also, this way, the powerful national lobbies would become area lobbies (much smaller) or industry lobbies, or social lobbies, like in the USA.

The only government who is really doing the best for Europe is the Commitee of the EU (When they are allowed by the countries).

Long live to Prodi and his team.

Ignacio
You are right! The problem is the euro is almost here. Expansion is still taking place without such reforms. As crisis hits, as it does to every area of the world periodically, the European "union" will break apart. There are just too many holes. I believe that foundation of the EU is faulty and it has become fueled as a French way to "beat America" Look at France. It really needs the EU and especially Germany to maintain its status of the world stage. The French language is leaving, culture is being "americanized," and they have lost most of there colonies. This at a time of globalization and the French wanting to keep there 35 hour work week. One country leaving the EU now would destroy it.
I think Spain has the biggest card to play to date.
Spain could join NAFTA, soon to be AFTA and really take a leadership role in the world right alongside the United States.
A new world view, yes. But a very possible one that I think that Aznar is preparing the Spanish public for. Trust me on this, Aznar,Fox, and Bush have been having secret meetings involving this.
Keep watching the news, and pay close attention to Aznar's and your King's travels.

Well, Toddy- I see there's another STRATFOR.COM reader on this board.

You know, I started this thread, only to see it become a sounding board for recriminations and accusations about various issues in US-EU relations.

Now, it's back to discussing bilateral US-Spain relations, which was the original intent.

Very interesting and thoughtful analysis and discussion of Spanish-US relations in the years to come, an other related topics as well. Thanks to all for the information and opinion.

Toddy,

You are right that we are going through a rough situation that could endanger the EU strenghthening progress. However, the situation here is not bad, nor it seems to become so,mainly because of Euro..

Yes, because of the fact that the dollar has become so expensive, our exports have benefit from it, while we have only suffered from it because of petrol (rising prices paid in more expensive dollars).

Euro weakness has made our firms to be more competitive towards american and asian products in the market we sell 90% of our products - Europe.

This has preseved greatly our GNP grow within this global crises. As soon as petrol prices go down,and inflation moderates, we will have more drops of interest rates, and the GNP will recover (with it, employment, tax incomes, et al).

And the crises do not hit the same everywhere, the USA didn't suffer the recent Asia crises the way Korea or Thailand did, the mexican crise affected much more to the USA than to any other developed country, ...

The fact that France, Germany, Spain, Italy's languages are losing position in the world share of languages, that their culture (France) is americanizing, which is true, and so on, has nothing to do with the EU.

All the european countries have lost most of their colonies, those are only unwanted and expensive remaints of the past.

The french need to realize (their politicians do) that they are not a power of the same size as the States, the same happens with the U.K.. We spanish have been a second class power in Europe since Franco destroyed the country in 1936/39, so we have had a rude falling, but these countries have been slowly declining for a long time, and I think many people there don't know what power they have in the world.
They still think they are individual powers, they don't realize they are to be followers of the USA or partners in the only other power that can negotiate at the same level in Europe, the EU.

I agree that if a country left the EU today it would be a terrible menace to its future.

BTW, I will pay attention to Aznar moves, as suggested, but not to the King, since our constitution makes him Commander in Chief of all our armies and little more, he is mainly a public relations (and he does well, I am a republican, but I like him).

[ 07-18-2001: Message edited by: Ignacio ]

You are right about the EU helping Spain. My point, is post EU. As the markets of Latin America increase (remember, since NAFTA, America's exports to Mexico have skyrocketed)the EU's leading companies' countries will have to look for more markets using cheap educated labor. At this time, the wages in Spain are one of the lowest in the EU. Once eastward expansion takes place these new eastern unionless workers will provide the EU cheapest labor that Germany and France need. Germany, in the next few years, needs about 50,000 new workers. Unless educated Spanish workers immigrate into Germany at a very high rate, the next best cheapest route is to set up factories in the east. With the amount of German and French companies presently raising Spains GNP through investment, it seems that EU expansion to the east could really hurt Spain. (not to mention the EU subsidies) I know the Aznar administration has pushed Germany to slow down expansion, but the economic reality is for the EU to get a couple more years of life against the Americas, eastern expansion, federalization of the EU, and a new EU tax have to be in the plans. From what I've read in the EU news, these "political balloons" have been floating for awhile to gear up the EU public to their eventuality.
My underlying cause in these points, is a Spanish relationship with the United States outside of the confines of the EU, would benefit both countries' futures (and the worlds)tremendously. Imagine the Spanish born companies that would gain advantage to an incredible amount of markets throughout the Americas. For example we would love to be drinking better Rioja over here than that over-priced French stuff. But this is only the beginning. All of those talented Spanish engineers would invent and construct new Spanish products that we all over here would be eager to buy. Politically, you would hold the key to the Spanish language and be inolved in every step of the AFTA expansion on an equal level. You have to admit that this a very timely and HUGE opportunity for Spain in the worlds' history. I hope that all of the elite running Spain see this historic opportunity, my optimistic beliefs say they do. It's our destiny.

toddy:

Sorry for the delay - too busy

I did not mean Euro was helping Spain, but the EU, making our exports cheaper and imports more expensive - stimulating internal markets, improving european producers' sales.

In spite of this difference, I think our positions are getting closer:

It is true that we are the cheapest/one of tha cheaper work forces in Europe (due to the lower cost of living, or, what is the same, a favourable peseta/euro parity).

The germans do not need 50.000 workers, they need many more. In the recent days I have seen that amount as the number of computing experts/workers that Germany will need in the next ¿5? years. What you have to add is that the rest of the countries in the UE and the USA need similar amounts too (USA a higher number, I suppose).

It is very true that emigrant workforce from Eastern countries and the possibility to inverst in those countries, by then members of the EU is a serious menace for spanish workers.

But, although there may always be national gov.'s pressures to multinational companies whose home offices are in their territory to fire people somewhere else, many times they follow their "maximize profit rule" and fire the most expensive/less productive ones, so I think that the main problem is going to be for the most expensive countries' labour force - Why do you think unemployment is increasing in Germany, while reducing in Spain?

About federaization, as you will know, there are many different opinions - even in the same country (i.e. Spain). About that tax: I think the EU needs more resources to develope their policies, but I'd rather reduce agricultural, coal, ..., subsides than set a new tax, no matter the low rate it would have. It could be a .5% more in ¿VAT?.

Maybe the language would be in an equal's level (considering spanih as a whole, not a crowd of dialects spoken the way each one wants), but the rest of the relations wouldn't be as equals. How could them be with a neighbour 20 times as big in extension? Triple, four times as much in incomes per person (only because of a wrong exchange rate, very healthy for us)? With such an army? With ...

Again, we would be your followers, just as the british were going to be before they re-discovered Europe a couple of years ago.

Here is the part of the American I don't think you understand. We look at Spain as a new equal ally in Europe. Many many Americans (not just Wynona Ryder, and many others in Hollywood) believe we can learn a lot from an equal partnership with Spain. Bush is pushing hard for this. He KNEW he would be ridiculed for his Spanish, but he stumbled through very humbly and this was very very symbolic.
I really believe that Bush, Aznar, and Fox understand their place in history. This is a new beginning in the world where both American and European arrogance has no place.
Where, through free trade, the first world can build their economy right along with the third world.
Latin America will be a showcase for Africa, India, China, and in many other regions of the world.
This is Spain's time for carpe diem (sieze the day)

Equality is here!
Apple and Terra Lycos
sign joint agreement
Not a takeover, but an undertaking!
Viva los Estados Unidos y Spain!

Well, I have gone thorugh it, it is in

writing Terra, and pushing the "Hechos Relevantes" button. Sorry it is in Spanish.
It is just another general agreement on possible developement of future services, just like the signed with Lucent, Microsoft, ...

By the way, Terra belongs to the Telefonica Group, and I have not heard of important results in these agreements. The one signed by Telefonica and Sprint/Worldcom didn't bring any result at all¡

However, I think (time will tell if I am right) that the one is going to be fruitful is the signed by Telefonica Móviles and Deutsche Telekom for roaming, which will allow T. M. use D.T. networks and not to need to build its own UMTS ones (it is supposed to save half of the 5.000.000.000 $ investment needed).

[ 07-23-2001: Message edited by: Ignacio ]

[ 07-23-2001: Message edited by: Ignacio ]
COmisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores

[ 07-23-2001: Message edited by: Ignacio ]

Ignacio, in the Very short term you are right. However, when the technology dust settles, you will see Apple make a move into Spain and thus prompt Microsoft to challenge. I will try to access more data on these moves. Roaming, by the way, is a thing of the past. Movils will take to the internet next and then direct to satelites. Roaming charges , of course you've seen lately, are under a lot of EU scrutiny (well with all that Brit roaming and Spanish credit card fraud).