When I came over last March I used y Amex points. Seems that it really doesn't matter when you by your ticket because purchasing this way doesn't have anything to do with sales. I got round trip first class from United for around 90,000 miles. Funny thing is, coach was going to cost about the same then I moved my departure dates around and found a great deal with an open ended ticket good for a year.
I've noticed the same thing with the pricing going on as I'm looking to go back to Madrid in the next couple of months. My g/f family ended up buying us a Penthouse in Castellana so she wouldn't have o rent while going to grad school.
If you are flexible with your dates, even departure and return by different days of the week you can get better deals. By all means avoid bank holiday weekends or you will pay through the nose. We once waited a little too long and couldn't find a flight to La Coruna to see her parents and had to take the bus. Funny thing, we waited a couple days to come back and got a flight at the same price as the bus fare.
Just takes a little digging and flexibility.
Later, Paul
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Later,
Paul